Friday, May 10, 2013

Milestones


Since Real Estate Economics opened its doors, we have been committed to auditing new home communities throughout the State of California. In conducting quarterly audits, we have striven to capture every new home community in the markets we serve, with the exception of those with less than 12 homes.

In this fast paced world, it is hard to take the time to recognize the little victories. Those moments, which occur even in the corporate world, need to be recognized and even put on a little pedestal sometimes. This just so happens to be one of those moments.

Real Estate Economics is proud to announce that we have recently completed our 18,000th new home community profile.   That represents hundreds of thousands of miles driven by a team of dedicated auditors who visit each and every community to obtain the most accurate and up-to-date information.

Going forward, we will continue to bring relevant and needed information to the housing industry and in addition to our new home data, our new demographic reports and parcel information is just around the corner.  

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Producer Prices in 2013


At Real Estate Economics we monitor more than house prices, interest rates and building permits.  Another aspect of builder success and profitability relates to the costs of goods and services needed to complete their product, the new home in a builder community.  In this post we’ll show February 2013  Producer Prices Index (PPI) data for a variety of goods used in residential construction. 

Many of the industries that serve the builder market suffered tremendously during the recession.  The owners of raw lumber, gypsum manufacturers, and the producers of OSB, drain pipe and a whole array of industries operate at paper thin margins, trying to remain viable during the housing market slump.  We had widely anticipated a series of price increases that would have been needed to restore modest profitability to these industries, but with surging new home sales many producers are gaining significant pricing power.  Like residential construction, many product manufacturers trimmed capacity over the last few years, some have been able to streamline and modernize, but not all are coming out of the recession with a leaner and more efficient profile. 

Below is a sample of construction related products.  This is not intended to be a comprehensive list.  A number of categories are stable and many specific items such as copper related goods have declined in price during the time frame.  Notably, many items with international influences such as cement, cement products, fasteners and sheet metal are relatively price contained.  Other items with a tendency to be manufactured domestically have shown more severe price increases. 


Clearly, the new home being produced in 2013 will cost more than its predecessor in 2011 and 2012.  Builder purchasing departments are going to have their work cut out for them over the next few years. 


To obtain this report or inquire further about the information above: ContactUs@RealEstateEconomics.com or visit our website at www.RealEstateEconomics.com.

Wednesday, March 6, 2013


INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY - WHAT THEY MEAN FOR INTEREST RATES

Please join John Mulville, Senior Vice President at Real Estate Economics, as he presents an important webinar analyzing Interest Rate Trends and Forecasts and the impact of these trends on residential home sales. The following will be addressed in this webinar:

•Where we've been in the housing market disruption and uneven recovery?
•Where we are now with investors, listings and foreign demand?
•Where are we going with the interest rate outlook?

This 1/2 hour webinar will be presented via GoToMeeting.com on Mar. 6, 2013 at 10:00 A.M. 
  Please click the link below to register:
https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/599641186

Thank you for your support as Real Estate Economics continues to do all it can to offer insight and strategies regarding the economy and housing market recovery.

 

8961 Research Drive Suite 200, Irvine CA 92618, Phone: (949) 502-5151
Email: Contactus@RealEstateEconomics.com
Youtube Channel:
www.YouTube.com/RealEstateEconomics

Friday, February 22, 2013

The Business of Trust - Part 2

In Case you missed it, Real Estate Economics hosted Eric Snider as a webinar guest last week as he discussed LifeStory and the Business of Trust in the Residential Housing Market Industry. Below is Part 2 of his presentation, we hope you find it interesting and insightful. 






Brand Trust
Trust is a customer’s confidence or willingness to rely on a brand’s competence and reliability.  It arises from an accumulated knowledge that allows one to make predictions, with some level of confidence, regarding the likelihood that a brand will live up to its obligations. Trust is a key variable in the establishment of a relationship and is the main antecedent to commitment.  
A customer uses trust in a brand as a risk-reduction mechanism.  That is, people rely upon judgments of trust in conditions in which there is a high degree of uncertainty.  When a customer is searching for a home, they see the purchase experience as one that entails risk and in turn this creates a condition of uncertainty.  Given this condition, home shoppers rely heavily upon trust in a builder when making a purchase decision.  Trust in a builder reduces uncertainty and risk in the mind of a consumer.

Trust
Trust is an important variables when it comes to business.  Research on the subject is very clear, when there is increased trust, there is a corresponding increase in the persuasiveness of that product or person that is trusted.  The simple truth is that we purchase brands that we trust.
Research also unpacks the psychological attitude of trust.  This research demonstrates that trust plays a critical role in establishing the construct of authority.  People listen to those that are authorities, and brands themselves can be an authority.  What the research finds is that to be seen as an authority you must not only be seen as an expert, you must also be trusted.  It is not possible for people to see you as a persuasive authority if you do not have both trust and expertise.

Brand Trust
Let me give you an example of the power of brand trust from another industry, the automotive industry.  It is a common practice for auto manufactures to take advantage of using the same car to sell under different brand names.  These kinds of auto sales are referred to as twin auto sales.  In these cases, the cars are the same, they simply are marketed under different brand names.  So, what happens when the same car is sold with different brand names?  Economic theory would have you believe that the cars should generate the same price.  However, research shows consistently that people will actually pay more for the same car based solely on the brand attached to the car.

The Impact
 An increasing number of companies are beginning to recognize that trust is not a “soft” factor; rather, it is a “hard” factor that drives the economics of businesses. 

Consider for a moment what makes a sales person truly successful?  The clear objective of a sales professional is to generate the sales for the product that they are selling.  So, a talented sales person is one that is able to generate results through the sales of their products.  But ask yourself this – what is the very first objective of a sales person when they first meet a potential customer?  Ask a top performing sales person if they can generate a sale without trust, and they will tell you that it is impossible.

Related, we have found significant differences when examining builders in the context of trust. Namely, we have found a 33% perceived price premium between a low trust and a high trust builder.  If a consumer saw a builder as trustworthy, they were also likely to see the price of the homes offered by the builder as worth more.  As this indicates, trust is a “hard” factor that can have a direct impact on the revenues produced by a builder.


Ranking the National Builders on Trust
 Given the importance of trust on how consumers judge a builder and the value they place upon the homes offered by the builder, we undertook an analysis of the data to identify which builders were the most trusted builders in America.  To do this, we had to first identify how we were to measure consumers trust in a builder.


The Lifestory Research Measure of Trust
 Asking brand trust questions allows companies to track trust advocates and trust detractors, producing a clear measure of an organization's performance through its customers' eyes, its Net Trust Quotient Score (NTQS). 

This equation is how we calculate a Net Trust Quotient Score for a brand.  This score is both a trust metric and a discipline for using customer feedback to drive profitable growth in a brand.  Consumers in that market were asked: Based on anything you have seen or heard, what is your impression of the trustworthiness of the following home builder?  Responses could range along a 10 point scale of Very Trustworthy to Not Trustworthy.  As shown in the graphic below, Net Trust Quotient Scores were then calculated based on how a consumer evaluated a specific builder brand along the 10 point scale.

NTQS is based on the fundamental perspective that every organizations customer can be divided into three categories: trust advocates, neturals, and antagonists.

·         “Trust advocates” are customers that feel a significant trust toward a given brand.  Trust advocates go out of their way to share with others their personal confidence in a specific brand which they trust. 
·         “Neutrals” are customers that trust a specific brand, but they do not see that brand as standing on the shoulders of other brands in regards to trust.  This group of consumers sees little differentiation of a specific brand in regards to how it compares to other similar brands rated on the dimension of trust.  As a result, neutrals do not speak up and say anything about a brand based on their confidence and trust in a brand. 
·         “Antagonists” are skeptics and have little, if any, trust in a brand.  These people feel a negative sense toward brands given the distrust they have toward a brand.  This distrust in turn fuels a need to share with other people their convictions that a specific brand cannot be trusted.



Brands Tested
 Our objective here is to share the national results in regards to the top 10 builder brands that were judged to be the most trusted in America.  Market level results can be obtained by clients of the MindShare research program.  Given the national focus, we evaluated the top 25 national builder brands in the US.  A brand was included in this analysis if a builder was in the top 30 of the Builder 100 list from 2011 and was in at least 3 or more markets.  Based on this, the following were the brands included in the analysis.


The Builder Brands We Trust
 Most Trusted Builders in America



Conclusion

As demonstrated here, the trust of a consumer is critical to the business success of any company.  However, when consumers are faced with conditions of uncertainty and the high risk decision of purchasing a home in today’s market, the trust of a builder is even more pressing than ever before.  Having trust in a builder provides consumers with the confidence in making a purchase decision.  Moreover, as demonstrated, builders that garner a high trust brand perception are also able to generate higher profit margins through higher pricing for equivalent offerings as compared to their less trusted competitors. 
Trust is the new currency that consumers are seeking from companies with whom they wish to engage in a purchase relationship.  So, the question all companies should be asking themselves is to what degree to consumers trust you?

THE RESULTS


Please contact Real Estate Economics for more information at ContactUs@RealEstateEconomics.com or visit www.RealEstateEconomics.com.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

The Business of Trust - Part 1

In Case you missed it, Real Estate Economics hosted Eric Snider as a webinar guest last week as he discussed LifeStory and the Business of Trust in the Residential Housing Market Industry. Below is Part 1 of his presentation, we hope you find it interesting and insightful. Part 2 will be posted tomorrow morning.



The Business of Trust – The Most Trusted Builders in America

“It takes 20 years to build a reputation. 
It takes 5 minutes to ruin it.” – Warren Buffett

Introduction

In today’s economic marketplace, trust is everything.  More than any other factor, it can reduce costs, improve productivity, enhance innovation, improve collaboration, and increase value.  Without trust, barriers go up, value goes down, and relationships do not advance.  Consumers desire and seek out companies that they have confidence and trust in.

We want to frame trust in a different light, in a way you may have not considered before.  We want to make a business case for trust.  To this end, we undertook an extensive study on the nature of trust within the home building marketplace in order to identify how business is influenced by the trust that prevails between a builder and home shopper.  Our goal in this presentation is to share some of the insights we captured in this work. As this work demonstrates, trust is a valued currency that can significantly alter how consumers evaluate the merits of a new home builder.
Specifically, our objective today is to outline the framework and justification as to why “trust” matters in conducting business in the marketplace today.  Moreover, our objective is to demonstrate how consumers think of trust in the context of searching for a new home.  To this end, as part of this presentation we will be sharing the rank of the Most Trusted Builders in America at a national level.

Background

Before sharing the results, I wanted to give you a brief overview of Lifestory Research and myself.  Lifestory Research is a firm that was begun in 2009 with a focus of providing high quality consumer research services.  My name is Eric Snider, and I am the President and Chief Research Officer at Lifestory Research.  Prior to forming Lifestory Research, I worked within home building for more than 14 years, both at Shea Homes and Pulte Homes, where I held the role of the national vice president of sales and where I oversaw all consumer research efforts.  Prior to my home building experience, I spent 6 years of my career as an academic as part of the faculty at Arizona State University where I taught classes on research methods and performed research on the subject of persuasion and influence.


Lifestory Research is a multi industry research provider.  We serve clients from a variety different industries including energy, product manufactures, health care, education and non profits.  However, more than half of the work we perform today is concentrated within the home building industry.


Data Comes From

 Today I am going to share with you the results of an ongoing study we conduct at Lifestory Research.  This is a research product that clients can access through a subscription to the research program.  I want to give you a brief overview of the study design and approach before sharing the results.



Surveyed

 The data from this research program comes from 27 markets in which we survey on a monthly basis and report out the results on a quarterly basis.


Surveyed

Each month we survey around 3,600 new home shoppers across the 27 markets.  As a result, each quarter we survey 400 people in each of the 27 markets in the study.  This gives us a margin of error of less than 4% and allows us to have confidence in the results.  People who take the survey are qualified as well.  A person must be currently shopping for a new home, have an income over $50,000, and be between the age of 25 and 69 years of age.
Tracks

 In each of the 27 markets, we track consumer’s perceptions of the top 15 to 20 builders in that market.  In all, we have over 130 builders being evaluated in the study each month. We ask 11 core questions about each of these builders in order to understand things such as brand awareness.  We also include questions about product manufacture brands in specific categories such as kitchen appliances, HVAC systems, cabinets, and paint.  In all, we track another 100 product manufacturing brands each quarter as part of the survey program.

Why Measure Brand

We often get asked, what are the benefits of measuring brand?  So, let me share a few of the reasons we undertake such a large scale research program. 

First, we know from our research that for most consumers knowing the name of a builder when they are shopping for a home impacts their behavior.  Consumers are more likely to visit communities of builders they have some degree of familiarity with.

Second, it is a standard operating procedure in most industries to track how ones brand ranks within the category in which they operated.  We actually perform this brand tracking for several companies in industries such as health care.  Another client we have tracked in regards to brand trust is the Olympics.  In their case they benchmark how they rank in trust against other sports based organizations.



Third, consumers tell us in our research that in addition to knowing the name of a builder before shopping one of their communities, consumers tell us that the reputation of a builder is critical for them to know prior to purchasing. The also tell us that they would pay more for a builders homes if they have a good reputation.




Fourth, and perhaps most important, we have found that brand matters when it comes to sales.  We know specifically in the home building industry, that 24% of THE ENTIRE DECISION a customer makes when shopping is based solely on their awareness of the builder.


The Context

Place yourself in the shoes of a customer shopping for a new home and imagine if they have trust in the company. Consider a situation in which someone is shopping for a new home and in one case the consumer has low trust in the builder and in another case they have high trust in the builder.  Is it not obvious which builder has the greatest potential to create a relationship and form a transaction sale?

The reality is we're operating in an increasingly low trust, low confidence world. There's a crisis of trust all around us, with low levels of trust in other people, organized religion, Wall Street, and in government.  In recent national polls on the subject of trust, it has been found that on average 61% of Americans say that you cannot trust other people. [1]  This level of distrust in others is the lowest on record since 1972 when polling began on this question by the National Opinion Research Center.  Similarly, confidence in organized religion has fallen from a high of 45% in 1973 to a low of 20.5%[2]. Perceptions of Wall Street show that 72% of Americans think that Wall Street only cares about making money for itself.[3] Just 20% of Americans say they can trust the government in Washington to do what is right always or most of the time.[4] At the core of the current market is a crisis of confidence and trust in companies.  After experiencing the worst financial collapse since the Great Depression, consumers have lost trust in companies.   


In a longitudinal study by the National Opinion Research Center finds that confidence in companies has dropped significantly with now only 13% of Americans indicating that they have a great deal of confidence in companies.



We have found these patterns of distrust in our own research.  We found that trust varied significantly based upon the industry in question.  The least trusted industries were health insurance (50% distrust), and banks and financial institutions (46%).  The industries garnering the lowest amount of distrust included Manufacturing (11% distrust), Technology (11%) and Retail companies (12%).  Home building and real estate companies trended toward the middle of the industries tested with 31% of consumers indicating that they do not trust companies in this industry.
So, if there is a crisis of trust in how Americans view companies, what are the things a company needs to do to create trust?  We now turn to defining more clearly the construct of trust.  For we know that the creation of trust is based on knowing and understanding what is trust.





[1] National Opinion Research Center, General social surveys, 1972-2010, 2011.
[2] National Opinion Research Center, General social surveys, 1972-2010, 2011.
[3]  Pew Research Center, Trends in American Values: 1987-2012, 2012.

[4] Pew Research Center, The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election, 2011.



Please contact Real Estate Economics for more information at ContactUs@RealEstateEconomics.com or visit www.RealEstateEconomics.com.

Monday, February 11, 2013

The Business of Trust


Real Estate Economics Presents:

THE BUSINESS OF TRUST

Please join guest speaker Eric Snider, President and Chief Research Officer of Lifestory Research as he makes a business case for the basis of consumer trust. The goal of this presentation is to share some of the insights captured in an extensive study on the nature of trust within the home building marketplace. Eric identifies how business is influenced by the trust that prevails between a builder and home shopper. Trust is a valued currency that can significantly alter how consumers evaluate the merits of a new home builder.

This webinar will be presented via GoToMeeting.com on February 13th, 2013 at 10:00 A.M.

Please Click the Link Below to Register:www2.gotomeeting.com/register/196901402

8961 Research Drive Suite 200, Irvine CA 92618, Phone: (949) 502-5151
Email: ContactUs@RealEstateEconomics.com

Monday, February 4, 2013

Money Money Money




In several of our recent presentations Real Estate Economics has addressed the increasing significance of foreign demand on U.S. residential housing, which totaled about $82.5 billion in Year 2011.  In the last few weeks these stories made headlines in Chinese media:

  1. The South China Morning Post reported that more than 150,000 Chinese became permanent citizens in major immigrant countries including the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand last year, topping the world's list of overseas migration in absolute numbers, a recent report revealed. The Centre for China and Globalization (CCD) and Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT) School of Law jointly released their findings in the Chinese International Talents Annual Blue Book's International Migration Report (2012).
  2. Hurun Research Institute and Bank of China reported that during 2011 about 14% of China's high-net-worth individuals had either emigrated or were in the process of doing so. In addition, 46% were considering permanently moving overseas through various immigrant investor programs with real estate, foreign currency deposits and stocks being the primary areas of investment.
  3. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) declared that 41% of total EB-5 Immigration Investor Program applicants were Chinese while the Australian Department of Immigration and Citizenship reported that 61.5% of applicants for the Business Skilled Migration Program were Chinese.

There are several interesting subplots to the immigration data.  Among them are the possibility that Chinese economic growth is being overstated in the official numbers and high net worth individuals are leaving while the ability to do so exists.  Second, the new leadership has expressed a desire for more sustainable economic growth which suggests that the many state-owned-enterprises (SOE’s) which frequently operate with high debt levels, may not be operating the same way in the future, motivating their leaders/sponsors to immigrate while possible.  Collectively, these factors suggest concern about political uncertainty ahead which bodes well for foreign demand from Chinese expatriates.